Neal Stephenson has no trouble getting the science right in his speculative sci-fi best-sellers, which dwell on how people might respond to new technologies that upend the world. But sometimes his guesses aren’t borne out by what happens when actual people confront an actual apocalypse.
“The idea that we could have a pandemic, that by this point has killed going on twice as many Americans as died in World War II, and in a much shorter span of time—and yet, there’s still a sizable number of people in this country who don’t even think it’s real,” Stephenson told senior correspondent Adam Rogers today at RE:WIRED. “Even after Trump and everything else, I did not see that coming.”
“Then I look at climate change—climate change is far, far more abstract and difficult a scientific concept to understand, even for scientifically-educated people,” continued Stephenson, whose 17th book, Termination Shock comes out next week and tackles the topic of global warming. After watching the public cognitive dissonance over Covid-19, Stephenson sees no reason not to expect the same for climate change. “The consequences are much farther away, and much more abstract than having a friend or a neighbor or a loved one get sick or die of this disease,” he said. “You have to be pretty realistic, which means pessimistic.”
In his new novel, Stephenson imagines a world tilting toward a climate apocalypse, in which an oil billionaire takes matters into his own hands—by building the world’s biggest gun to shoot tons of sulfur into the atmosphere, an attempt at solar geoengineering to reflect sunlight. It’s a tactic that some (non-fictional!) scientists believe could cool the planet, saving human lives, global biodiversity, and, presumably, hurricane-threatened Texas property.
“The program is already sort of a fait accompli,” Stephenson said of how the novel opens. “So most of the book is really on the topic of how people around the world, from different countries and different walks of life, respond to what this guy is doing.”
It was important for Stephenson to finally write about climate. “Nothing else matters in comparison. It’s going to be the issue for 100 years,” he had previously told Rogers in a WIRED interview. “I’m a guy who found a niche writing fiction about technical and scientific topics. It seemed odd to me that I should get to the end of my career and never take a whack at it.”
An individual billionaire struck Stephenson as a useful trope, he told the RE:WIRED audience. “We’ve gotten into a really weird place in how things work in our society, where billionaires are the answer to everything,” he said. “Fifty years ago, if something big needed to happen, we would look to the government, or we would look to private industry.”
Rogers noted that solar geoengineering is a controversial idea, and asked Stephenson whether it is a “big vision,” something that in a 2011 WIRED piece the author argued sci-fi writers need to supply. “It could be,” Stephenson replied.